A significant element in electricity system planning is the projection of the expected electricity consumption divided into sectors and uses. The projection of the electricity consumption is made by means of ELMODEL Bolig and the so-called EMMA MODEL. The current development in consumption is monitored via the so-called electricity consumption panels of representative sections of consumers distributed on housing, agriculture/horticulture, industry and trade/services. This can be used for comparing the projections with the actual development.
ELMODEL Bolig
ELMODEL Bolig’s electricity consumption forecast only relates to the housing sector and is based on the total number of domestic appliances. The projection takes into consideration the expected development of the housing sector, the distribution and use of appliances (ie frequency of use) and the electricity consumption of new appliances. A projection is made every two years (odd years). The projection forms part of Energinet.dk's data basis and is also presented in a report that addresses domestic sciences advisers, energy consultants, engineers and others interested in electricity consumption in the housing sector.
EMMA forecast model (Energy and Emission Model for ADAM)
The EMMA model is based on a projection of the production development distributed on business sectors in the macroeconomic ADAM model. The EMMA model's connection to ADAM is established via energy-specific models that determine the use in households and businesses of liquid and solid fuels, gas, transport energy, electricity and district heating as a function of economic development, expected energy prices and a trend. This results in a projection of the electricity consumption (and other energy forms) distributed on business sectors.
Electricity consumption panels
The electricity consumption panels monitor the consumption via quarter-hourly measurements, which make it possible to analyse the distribution and changes in distribution during a 24-hour period. Furthermore, growth rates are calculated on the basis of last year's values for each of the 4 main sectors. The rates are adjusted allowing for climate and calendar variations. The growth rate for the first quarter of 2006 is 1.5% – which is a continuance of the growth in 2005 and corresponds by and large to the calculated growth rates of the projections.